Canada’s Express Entry system has long been a beacon for skilled immigrants pursuing permanent residency. But 2025 has introduced a level of unpredictability that’s forcing candidates to rethink their strategies.
Following a temporary pause in draws after March 21 and a cautious resumption on April 14, Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is now issuing fewer Invitations to Apply (ITAs), making the process more competitive than ever.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
- The Changing Express Entry Landscape
- 5 Key Factors That Could Shape the Next Express Entry Draw
- Proven Strategies to Boost Your CRS Score
- What Temporary Residents Should Watch For
- Understanding Canada’s Broader Immigration Plan in 2025
The Changing Express Entry Landscape in 2025
Express Entry manages three main economic immigration programs:
- Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP)
- Canadian Experience Class (CEC)
- Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP)
It also includes Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates who often receive an automatic 600-point boost. But even this advantage is changing, as annual PNP quotas have been slashed by 50%.
In line with Canada’s new 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan, IRCC now emphasizes targeted, category-based draws—especially for candidates with French proficiency or in-demand occupations.
The draw on May 13, 2025, for example, invited only 500 CEC candidates with a record-high CRS cutoff of 547—despite expectations that scores would fall due to the removal of arranged job offer points on March 25.
This shift comes amid a large inventory of permanent residency applications—880,800 as of April 30, already enough to meet targets through 2027.
5 Key Factors That Could Shape the Next Express Entry Draw
1. CRS Cutoff Score: The Most Watched Number
Despite predictions of a drop in CRS scores after the removal of job offer points, cutoffs remain high. Notable examples from 2025 include:
- Jan 8: 1,350 ITAs, CRS 542
- Jan 23: 4,000 ITAs, CRS 527
- Feb 5: 4,000 ITAs, CRS 521
- May 13: 500 ITAs, CRS 547
A draw in the 530–535 range would offer optimism, but persistent scores above 540 could push lower-ranking candidates to look at alternatives like French draws or PNPs.
Pro tip: Even a single improvement in language scores can add significant CRS points. For instance, one candidate boosted their score from 515 to 559 simply by reaching CLB 9 in English.
2. Draw Size: Will IRCC Go Big or Stay Cautious?
Smaller draws increase competition. In 2025:
- Jan–Feb: 17,422 ITAs across 7 draws
- Mar–Apr: 14,507 ITAs in 6 draws
- May: Only 2,511 ITAs over 4 draws
Draws for French speakers accounted for over 54% of all invitations so far, while CEC-only draws are at 29%. Occupation-based draws remain rare but may increase as IRCC looks to match skills with market needs.
A large CEC draw (2,000+ ITAs) would be a strong signal that IRCC still values in-Canada work experience.
3. Draw Frequency: Is the Biweekly Schedule Gone for Good?
Although Express Entry used to follow a fairly predictable biweekly pattern, IRCC paused draws for nearly a month this spring. This irregularity is forcing candidates to adapt.
If no draw occurs this week, a monthly pattern could emerge, suggesting high CRS cutoffs will remain the norm.
4. Multiple Draws in One Week: A Bullish Signal?
In 2025, IRCC has held multiple draws in a single week, targeting different categories. For example:
- May 1: 1,000 ITAs (Education Category), CRS 479
- May 12: 511 ITAs (PNP), CRS 706
- May 13: 500 ITAs (CEC), CRS 547
If total weekly ITAs cross 5,000, it would indicate a more inclusive approach. But realistically, IRCC has kept total weekly ITAs closer to 1,500–2,000, suggesting caution.
5. CRS Distribution in the Pool: Are You Above or Below the Bar?
As of May 12, many candidates in the pool had CRS scores above 500, pushing cutoffs higher.
A shift in distribution—fewer high scores and more mid-range ones—could mean lower future cutoffs if IRCC increases draw sizes. If not, the pool will remain highly competitive.
Proven Strategies to Boost Your CRS Score in 2025
Maximize Language Points
Language proficiency remains one of the easiest ways to gain up to 310 CRS points as a sole applicant. Aim for CLB 9 or higher in English and consider French for lower-cutoff draws.
Gain Canadian Work Experience
Another year of Canadian work experience can significantly raise your score, especially for the CEC stream or occupation-based draws.
Target Category-Based Draws
Healthcare, trades, and education fields have been prioritized in 2025. Even a CRS of 479 could secure an ITA if your occupation is in demand.
Explore PNP and Pilot Programs
Provincial nominations still add 600 points, and new pilot programs for rural and Francophone communities provide alternative pathways—though quotas remain low.
Use Spousal Points Wisely
If you have a spouse, their education or language test results can add up to 40 points.
Stay Informed
Keep up with updates from IRCC or reliable immigration news sources. The tie-break rule means earlier profile submissions get priority when CRS scores are tied.
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What the Next Draw Could Mean for Temporary Residents
Temporary workers and international graduates are relying on the CEC stream. But with only four CEC draws this year and rising cutoffs, many are concerned.
A larger draw or reduced cutoff could reaffirm IRCC’s commitment to converting temporary residents into permanent ones. Otherwise, they may need to explore French-language draws or occupation-specific routes.
For example:
- A French-speaking candidate with CRS 400 could qualify under a language-based draw
- A teacher with CRS 480 could benefit from the Education Category
If the next draw doesn’t favor temporary residents, candidates may have to look at extending permits, increasing CRS scores, or even considering other immigration streams.
The Bigger Picture: IRCC’s Immigration Strategy Under New Leadership
With Lena Metlege Diab taking over as Immigration Minister in May 2025, IRCC has doubled down on economic immigration reforms.
Canada’s 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan limits annual growth in permanent residents to 1% of the population, aiming to reduce stress on infrastructure and services.
This strategy involves:
- Lower PNP quotas
- New category-based draws for specific skills and French speakers
- Continued emphasis on candidates with Canadian experience
The recent May 1 Education draw and the French proficiency draws from March suggest this direction will continue.
Final Thoughts: Prepare Now, Stay Strategic
The next Express Entry draw will be a turning point for many. Whether you’re in the pool already or planning to enter soon, now is the time to act:
- Improve your CRS score
- Monitor trends in draw frequency and size
- Target occupation- or language-based draws
- Consider alternatives if scores stay high
With proper preparation and attention to IRCC’s evolving priorities, your journey to Canadian PR can still succeed—even in this challenging climate.
For personalized guidance, consult a Regulated Canadian Immigration Consultant (RCIC) or visit IRCC’s website for the latest updates.
